October Belongs to Uganda

Three rooms, two cities, one thesis.

Some countries ask for attention. Uganda is now earning it on the numbers.

This October, Uganda's case is being made in three rooms. In Kampala, the country shows itself to the region at its biggest trade fair. In London, its diplomats raise a glass to 64 years of independence. At month's end, its coffee economy meets the people who finance it, buy it and move it, in a room built for exactly that purpose. Each event says the same thing in a different way: the money is moving, and Uganda intends to be where it lands.

## The Numbers Behind the Noise

Start with the macro picture, because everything else depends on it.

Uganda grew 6.4% in FY2025/26. The nominal economy reached sh250.4 trillion, up from sh227.9 trillion in 2024/25. In dollars, that is about USD 69.3 billion by the end of June 2026, with PPP GDP estimated at USD 197.1 billion and GDP per capita projected to rise to USD 1,420.

The growth was not narrow. Agriculture grew 6.6% on the back of cash crops and livestock, industry grew 6.3% led by construction and manufacturing, and services grew 5.5%. Prices stayed calm while the economy grew: inflation averaged 3.8% in FY2025/26, against 3.5% the year before.

Then there is the next leg of growth. The economy is projected to grow 10.2% in FY2026/27, its first double-digit year since the reforms of the 1990s, as commercial oil production begins alongside continued investment in productive sectors.

A growth rate in the sixes is common across Africa. A credible move into double digits is not, and the capital that positions itself before the oil starts flowing will get a better entry price than the capital that arrives after.

## Agriculture: The Engine Room

Oil will make headlines, but agriculture remains the base of the economy.

Agriculture's share of GDP edged up from 26.1% to 26.2%, while industry's share slipped from 24.3% to 24.1%. In most developing economies agriculture's share shrinks as the economy grows. In Uganda it held its ground while the whole economy expanded, which means farming is growing in its own right.

It is also how the country earns abroad. Agriculture accounts for roughly a quarter of GDP and more than 40% of total export earnings. The labour market is changing at the same time. Services now account for 50.5% of total employment, agriculture's share has fallen to 37.1%, and industry accounts for 12.4%. Fewer people are producing more, which is what a modernising farm economy looks like.

The constraint is also the opportunity. Crop output grows at roughly 2% a year, below the 3.3% population growth rate. That gap is where the returns are: in irrigation, mechanisation, cold chain, processing and finance. Every point of productivity Uganda gains is margin for whoever supplies it.

## Coffee: The Crown Jewel

Coffee is where the story becomes hard to argue with.

Two years ago the record looked like this: US$1.97 billion from 7.17 million 60-kg bags exported between May 2024 and April 2025. That record has already been passed. In the twelve months to February 2026, Uganda exported 8.8 million bags for a record $2.5 billion, up from 6.3 million bags and $1.6 billion a year earlier. That is 41% more volume and 61% more value year-on-year.

Prices are softening, but premium coffee is holding up. The average price per kilogram fell to $4.63 in February 2026, from $5.03 a year earlier, yet Uganda's high-quality specialty coffee still commanded premium prices. Arabica is the segment to watch: in December 2025, Arabica exports rose 186% year-on-year to 134,955 bags at $6.82 per kilogram.

The ambition is larger still. Uganda is targeting 20 million bags of green coffee a year by 2030, more than double today's export volume.

Europe is the main market. Italy alone has taken more than 40% of Uganda's coffee exports in recent months, and Europe as a whole takes around 70%. That makes London, Europe's trading, roasting and capital hub, the right place to have this conversation.

Uganda's coffee is changing from an anonymous commodity into a named origin, and a named origin earns a higher price.

## Room One: Uganda International Trade Fair, Kampala

**2–11 October 2026 · UMA Show Grounds, Lugogo**

The month opens at home. The 32nd Uganda International Trade Fair runs 2–11 October 2026 at the UMA Show Grounds in Lugogo, open 9:00 AM to 8:00 PM daily. Stall assessments and the launch of the Agriculture Pavilion are on 5 October, followed on 6 October by the official opening ceremony, with President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni as chief guest.

This is the regional market showing what it makes. For investors, the Agriculture Pavilion is the place to see what can be processed, packaged and exported. Go to read the supply side, not to be sold to.

## Room Two: Uganda Independence Day Reception, London

**Around 9 October 2026 · Hosted by the Uganda High Commission**

Independence Day falls on 9 October, and the High Commission usually marks it in London. Last year's 63rd celebrations brought together the diplomatic corps, distinguished guests and the Ugandan diaspora, and the message was direct: Uganda presented itself as a stable, vibrant destination for investment, trade and tourism.

Receptions like this are where introductions happen quietly. The deals are rarely signed there, but they often start there. Attendance is typically by invitation, so the High Commission at Uganda House, Trafalgar Square, is the first call.

## Room Three: Origin Cup Uganda Edition, London

**30 October 2026 · Edition 4 of the Origin Cup Africa Series**

The month closes with the room that matters most.

Origin Cup is not a cupping session. It is a curated networking event, built around one principle: get the right people in the room. That means buyers and roasters, investors and financiers, exporters and logistics operators, agribusiness leaders, and the policymakers who shape the trade. They are not there to taste and leave. They are there to meet the people they need to do business with.

The series has already brought Ethiopia, Rwanda and Kenya to London, each edition backed by its origin's embassy and trade partners. Uganda is Edition 4.

The value is in who is in the room. Uganda has passed $2.5 billion in coffee exports and taken the top spot among African exporters. Origin Cup puts the people behind those numbers face to face with the capital and the buyers that can take them further.

Ghana follows on 30 November, and the Africa Coffee Festival London follows in August 2027. Uganda goes first among them, and it goes with momentum.

## The Investment Case, Plainly

Six points make the case:

1. **Growth with stability.** Real growth of 6.4% with inflation under 4% is rare, and it is a sound basis for long-term capital.

2. **A near-term step up in growth.** Oil production points to double-digit growth in FY2026/27. The window to position before that is open now.

3. **Agriculture with room to grow.** A farm sector growing faster than the economy, alongside a productivity gap, creates openings in inputs, processing, storage and finance.

4. **A coffee sector with proven scale.** Uganda is Africa's top coffee exporter, its Arabica is growing fast, and it has a 20-million-bag target for 2030.

5. **Ready access to buyers.** Most of Uganda's coffee is already sold into Europe, so the routes to market exist and the open question is how much more value Uganda captures along them.

6. **A young market.** Uganda's working-age population is large and young, and its consumer base is growing alongside it.

## The Risks, Stated Openly

A serious case states its risks. Public debt has risen to just over half of GDP, and dependence on rain-fed agriculture leaves the economy exposed to climate shocks. Coffee prices are coming off their peak. Oil timelines can slip. These are risks to price into a deal, not reasons to stay out of the market, and investors who prepare for them will be better placed than those who ignore them.

## The Close

The case runs through Kampala's showgrounds, a London reception hall and a curated room of buyers, investors and decision-makers, and it rests on growth that holds up, agriculture that keeps expanding, and coffee that now earns a premium.

October belongs to Uganda. Investors who engage this month will be ahead of those who wait for the oil.

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*Event details for the Independence Day reception should be confirmed with the Uganda High Commission in London. Origin Cup Uganda Edition enquiries go through the Origin Cup Africa Series organisers.*